HUOXI，LUNDUNZIXUNGONGSIEnergy AspectsDELIANHECHUANGSHIRENAmrita SenJINRIBIAOSHI：“ZAISUOYOUTONGHUOZAIPENGZHANGZICHANZHONG，SHIYOUSHIZUIBIANYIDE。”TAYUJI，SUIZHEYIMIAODETUICHU，TOUZIZHEJIANGKAISHIZHONGFANSHIYOUXINGYE，YOUJIAJIANGJIXUZOUQIANG。

　　CONGNENGYUANGUBIAOSHENGHEBULUNTEYUANYOUJIAGEZI3YUEYILAISHOUCITUPO50MEIYUANLAIPANDUAN，TOUZIZHESIHUZHENGJITIHUIGUI。

　　SUIRANZAIMEIGUOGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANFANFULAIXI，DANSUIZHEDIERBOFENGSUOCUOSHIDEFANGSONG，OUZHOUDEXUQIUZHENGZAIFANDAN，YAZHOUJIXUXINADALIANGYUANYOU。

　　在世界部分地区，需求已经复苏。

　　YINDUZUIDADELIANYOUSHANGSHANGZHOUBIAOSHI，QIGONGCHANGZHENGZAIKAIZUMALIJINXINGJIAGONG，YUJIRANLIAOXUQIUJIANGCHUXIAN“VXING”FANDAN。ZUOWEIQUANQIUDIERDAHEDISIDASHIYOUXIAOFEIGUO，ZHONGGUOHERIBENDEQIYOUXIAOFEIYECHUYUHUOJIEJINGONGGONGWEISHENGWEIJIQIANDESHUIPING。DAOLUSHIYONGHEJIAOTONGZHISHUXIANSHI，SUIZHEYINGGUO、XIBANYAHEFAGUODENGZHENGFUFANGSONGJIAOTONGFENGSUO，QIYEZHONGJIANKUCUNYIJISHENGDANGOUWUJIQUANMIANZHANKAI，OUZHOUGONGLUHUOYUNLIANGDAFUZOUGAO。ERMEIGUOZAIFUSUJINCHENGFANGMIANJIXULUOHOU。

　　The Bear Traps ReportCHUANGSHIRENLarry McDonaldDUICIBIAOSHIZANTONG，TADUI2021NIANCHILEGUANTAIDU，YUJIYINIANHOUYUANYOUJIAGEJIANGDADAO80MEIYUAN。

　　LarryRENWEI，QUANQIUJINGJIZHENGCHUYUCONGYIDAIRENZHIHUIJINGLIYICIDECHONGJIZHONGFUSUDEZAOQIJIEDUAN。CONGJINGJIXUEDEJIAODULAIKAN，YIBANQINGKUANGXIACHONGJIBUSHIJIYUXUQIU，JIUSHIJIYUGONGYING，ERGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANCHONGJISHIJISHANGSHILIANGZHEJIANERYOUZHI。JIUSHIYOUERYAN，HANGBANTINGFEI、FENGSUOYIJIZONGTIBUQUEDINGXINGDEJIAJU，DOUYIWEIZHEJINNIANSHIYOUHESHIYOUGONGSIDEGUJIABIAOXIANFEICHANGZAOGAO。ZAIZHEICHANGFENGBAOBEIJINGXIA，TOUZIZHEDEGUANZHUZHONGDIANJIANGSHISHEIHUICHENGWEIXINGCUNZHE，YINWEICONGJINGYINGGANGGANDEJIAODULAIKAN，NENGGOUTINGGUOZHEICICHONGJIDEGONGSIJIANGCHUYUYOULIDIWEI，BIRUJINGZHENGJIANRUO，CIWAI，ZHEIXIEGONGSIHAIYOUWANGCONGBUDUANBIANHUADEQUANQIUFENGXIANLANGCHAOZHONGHUOYI。

　　XINXINGSHICHANGGUOJIAZHENGSHOUYIYUMEIYUANZOURUOHERENMINBIZOUQIANG。ZAIQUANQIUJINGJIFUSUDEZAOQIJIEDUAN，MEIGUODENGJINGJIQIANGGUOSHISHIDECIJICUOSHIZAIHENDACHENGDUSHANGDUIQUANQIUJINGJI、YOUQISHIXINXINGSHICHANGCHANSHENGJIJIYINGXIANG，YEYOULIYUSHIYOUSHANGZHANG。

　　DANGJINGJIZENGZHANGHEMAOYIHAOZHUANSHI，SHIYOUJIYUSHIYOUXIANGGUANDEGONGSITONGCHANGBIAOXIANLIANGHAO。LarryRENWEI，RUGUOZENGZHANGHEXUQIUDAOZHI2021NIANYOUJIAZHONGXINDIAOGAO，NEIMEOPEC+HEMEIGUOYEYANQIDEGONGYINGFANYINGJIANGHUIGENGJIAWENHE。LarryXIANGXIN，DAGUIMODECAIZHENGCIJICUOSHIZHIHUIJIAQIANGZHEIZHONGSHITOU，DUI2021NIANSHIYOUJISHIYOUXIANGGUANQIYEYINGGAISHIYOULIDE。

　　BUGUO，LarryDEBAOGAOZHICHU，YOUYIXIEDUANQIWENTIXUYAOGUANZHU。SHIYOUSHICHANGZAIDUANQINEIYIJINGDUIXUDUOYINSUZUOCHULEFANYING，BAOKUODANGQIANDUIGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANDEDANYOU，YIJIJINGJIFENGSUOHEYILANGHUIFUSHENGCHANJIANGDAILAIDEDUANQIXUQIUWENTI。RANER，SHIYOUSHICHANGYIRANMIANLINZHEYILANGDENGGUOJIAZENGJIASHIYOUCHANLIANGDEFENGXIAN。BUGUO，OPEC+ZAIJUEDINGMINGNIANQIMEIRIZENGCHAN50WANTONGSHIYINGGAIKAOLVGUOZHEIGEWENTI。ZENGCHANJUEDINGKENENGYIWEIZHESHIYOUGONGYINGYIJINGMIANLINDUANQUE，EROPEC+ZHENGSHITUBIMIANYOUJIAKUAISUSHANGZHANG。

　　NENGYUANGUZAIDANGQIANSHICHANGSHANGDEBIAOXIANFEICHANGHAO，ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI，YOUJIAKENENGMIANLINYALI，ERGUPIAOKENENGHUIBIAOXIANDEGENGHAO，YINWEIZUIJINDEJIAZHI/ZENGZHANGLUNHUANSIHUYIJINGJIESHU。

　　YIXIAJIFANGMIANDEJIJIYINSUJIANGYOULIYUDIXIAOGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANJIXINZENGGONGYINGDENGDUISHIYOUSHICHANGDEBULIYINGXIANG：

　　1)原油价差已转为现货溢价，表明现货市场趋紧

　　2)布伦特原油与WTI原油的价差为6个月来最大，表明市场呈现趋紧态势

　　3)The Bear Traps ReportRENWEIDAXIYANGPENDIXIANHUOYUANYOUHEYAZHOULIANYOULIRUNLVSHITUIDONGSHIYOUSHICHANGCHIXUSHANGZHANGDEZHUYAOYINSU，ZUIJINZHEILIANGGEZUIZHONGYAODEXIANHUOSHICHANGZHIBIAODOUYOUSUOGAISHAN。

　　RENMENYAZHUZHEIXIESHIWUSHICHANGZHIBIAOHUIYINWEIGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANEREHUA，DANMUQIANTAMENXIANSHICHUSHICHANGGONGBUYINGQIU。

　　然而，部分分析人士认为中期复苏并没有那么乐观。

　　IHS MarkitXINJIAPONENGYUANZIXUNBUMENFUZONGCAIVictor ShumBIAOSHI:“XIANZAI，YOUJIAYIJINGZAINEIGECHONGMANXIWANGDEWEILAIDINGJIALE。”“ERWOMENBIXUYINGDUIJIJIANGDAOLAIDEHEIANDONGTIAN。”

　　YANJIUJIGOUZHICHU，YOULIYOURENWEI，MUQIANYOUJIAZUIGAOKENENGDADAO50MEIYUAN。YOUJIAKENENGHUIXIYINCONGBAGEDADAOEKELAHEMAZHOUDESHENGCHANSHANGZENGJIACHANLIANG。OPEC+NEIBUCUNZAIFENQI，YIXIECHENGYUANGUODUIGAIZUZHIZIXINGSHIJIADEGONGYINGXIANZHIGANDAOBUMAN。

　　BAOKUOEd MorseZAINEIDEHUAQIFENXISHIBIAOSHI:“YOUJIACHIXUSHANGZHANGKENENGHUISHIOPEC+BUZAINEIMEBAOSHOU，CONGERTUIDONGJIAGEHUILUO。”

　　CIWAI，XIANHUOYIJIAXIYINLETOUJIZHE。JIANADAHUANGJIAYINXINGFENXISHIMichael TranBIAOSHI，JINRONGSHIYOUSHICHANGFASHENGLEMINGXIANDEBIANHUA，TOUJIZHEZHENGZAIMAIRUBINGCHIYOUQIHUO，DANXINHUICUOGUOJINYIBUDEFANDAN。

　　NEIME，SHIYOUZHENDESHIZUIBIANYIDETONGHUOZAIPENGZHANGZICHANMA?HAISHIYOUYIMIAOYIJI“FOMO(HAIPACUOGUO)”DEKUANGREQINGXUSUOYINFADEGUODUTOUJI?

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